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Candelario had an up-and-down season Darren O'Day Jersey , but still looks like a big piece of the Tigers’ future."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Detroit Tigers AnalysisDetroit Tigers Prospect NotebookDetroit Tigers Game ThreadsDetroit Tigers NewsDetroit Tigers PodcastsTigers 2018 Season RecapTigers’ Jeimer Candelario showed progress despite a bumpy 2018New,6commentsCandelario had an up-and-down season, but still looks like a big piece of the Tigers’ future.ByZane HardingNov 19, 2018,1:15pm ESTShareTweetShareShareTigers’ Jeimer Candelario showed progress despite a bumpy 2018Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY SportsOn July 31, 2017, the Detroit Tigers, in the midst of a fire sale, shipped closer Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila to the win-now Chicago Cubs for two of their top prospects: Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes. Spoiler Alert: The Tigers won the trade. Isaac Paredes was one of four teenagers to play in the Eastern League in 2018 (two of the others being breakout star Juan Soto and uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), while Jeimer Candelario played 144 games en route to a respectable 2.5 fWAR season. Not bad for his first full campaign in the big leagues.Jeimer Candelario, meanwhile, deserves praise for posting a 2.5 fWAR campaign as a 24-year-old third baseman stuck at the beginning of a rebuild. That said, Candelario’s season is a two-sided tale. In 2018, Candelario excelled in the field, but took a step back at the plate.Jeimer Candelario posted a very respectable 5.2 runs above average defensively per Fangraphs this season. This places him as the seventh-best fielding third baseman in MLB this past season, and the fourth-best in the American League. Only Matt Chapman (13.1!!!), Kyle Seager (8., and Yolmer Sanchez (5.3 http://www.oriolesfanproshop.com/authentic-j.j.-hardy-jersey , but in 11 more games than Candelario) were better. This is a great sign for Candelario moving forward. Candelario was a 45-grade fielder as a prospect and was worth -1.4 runs in the field in limited action in 2017. Because of this, he was expected to be slightly below average as a fielder. With this impressive showing in 2018, however, Candelario has the potential to be an asset at the plate and in the field moving forward. This is great news as the Tigers continue to build their future around high-end pitching prospects. Unfortunately, the brave souls who watched most of the Tigers’ 2018 campaign know that Candelario’s defensive progress was not what defined his 2018 season. Candelario slowed down as the season went on, and the Tigers better hope that he is more fully prepared for the marathon that is a 162-game schedule.One big stat: .293 on-base percentage from June to OctoberWhile Jeimer Candelario exceeded expectations in the field this past season, he faltered at the plate. In 2017, Candelario posted all-around impressive numbers: a .359 on-base percentage, a nice 112 wRC+ mark, and 36 total hits in 38 games. 2018 was not as kind to him. He went from being an above-average hitter to a slightly below-average hitter, as his wRC+ fell to 95 and his on-base percentage fell to .317. Additionally, he only amassed 121 hits in 144 games. Perhaps the most concerning thing about Candelario’s season, however, was his regression as the season moved on. Jeimer Candelario Offense by MonthMonthAVGOBPABMonthAVGOBPABCandelario had an impressive two months to start the seaspn, finishing with a .368 on-base percentage in 171 at-bats, eclipsing his .359 mark from 2017. After missing time with a left wrist injury, the wheels seemed to come off. He struggled through June to the tune of a .172 batting average, and while he was able to draw 16 walks throughout the month Ubaldo Jimenez Jersey , opposing pitchers adjusted the rest of the season. As a result, Candelario posted an abysmal .217 on-base percentage in July, and from June to October posted a very disappointing .293.Some of Candelario’s other splits are equally worrisome. He hit .199 against righties this past season after hitting .269 against them in 2017. The shift caught up to him in 2018, as well, as he hit .237 in 156 AB against the shift after hitting .313 in a small sample size of 16 AB against the shift in 2017.So, is Candelario capable of bouncing back from this offensive regression to become the 4 fWAR player he is capable of being? Sure. He posted a 131 wRC+ against lefties, had a decently low .279 BABIP (implying he is due for a bounce-back 2019 campaign), and he walked 10.7% of the time in 2018 (it’s always nice to have a player with a walk percentage over 10 percent in your lineup). He also hit 19 home runs in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and was a beneficiary of the Ron Gardenhire regime, as he was worth 2.8 runs above average as a base runner throughout 2018.For Candelario, 2018 was two steps forward and one big step back. His peripherals look good, his fielding looks great, and he will only be 25 entering next season. In a 2019 season that will be filled with anticipation for prospect debuts, remember to keep a close eye on the young third baseman. The 2019 MLB Season begins on Wednesday, March 20 with the Japan Opening Series between the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners.Before the season begins, Sean Zerillo ran his MLB model to project each team's win total for 2019.When the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released their 2019 MLB win totals, the market was initially over-inflated by nine wins, at an average of 81.3 wins per team, things have adjusted since then but the market is still over-inflated towards the over.In 2018 Joey Rickard Jersey , totals were 17-13 to the under. All five teams in the AL Central and four of the five NL West teams (not Colorado) went under.When in doubt, take the under.Conversely, four of the five NL Central teams (not Cincinnati) hit their over. Four playoff teams (Atlanta, Boston, Milwaukee, and Oakland) had at least 15 wins more than their projected totals, while only the Baltimore Orioles fell more than 15 wins shy of their total (by 26 wins).Exactly half of the league (15 teams) ended up within five wins of their total.Over a 162-game schedule, when merely having good or bad luck in one-run games can swing the outcome of a team鈥檚 season by double-digit wins, any edge in this market will be razor thin.For closer examination, I selected the six teams (Arizona, Atlanta, both Chicago clubs, Colorado, and Seattle) whose projection in the model is off by at least 2.45 wins from their total. Colorado鈥檚 line has remained at the opening total, but each of the other five teams has seen line movement toward their composite projection.Arizona DiamondbacksOpening Total: 73Current Total: 75.5Model Projection: 77.975Recommended Play: Over (+2.475 Wins)The betting market over-corrected for rebuilding clubs during the last offseason (Pirates and Rays) and that appears to be the case once again.Losing Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, and Patrick Corbin really hurt the name-brand talent on this Arizona squad, but this roster still has enough starting pitching (Zack Greinke http://www.oriolesfanproshop.com/authentic-j.j.-hardy-jersey , Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, and Luke Weaver) and is good enough defensively (+157 Defensive Runs Saved in 2018, 1st in MLB) to continue to play near .500 baseball going forward.If Ketel Marte can make a smooth transition to Center Field, and if Carson Kelly can quickly acclimate to this pitching staff, the reloading Diamondbacks could surpass all expectations.Atlanta BravesOpening Total: 86.5Current Total: 86Model Projection: 83.375Recommended Play: Under (-2.625 Wins)After arriving a 鈥測ear early鈥?and winning the NL East in 2018, the Braves have now added Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann to a lineup that already features Freddie Freeman, and potential generational stars in Ronald Acu帽a Jr. and Ozzie Albies.However, Donaldson is far from a sure thing to stay healthy, and the Braves seemingly deep rotation is already thinning out with injury issues this spring. Mike Foltynewicz is dealing with an elbow issue, while Kevin Gausman, Luiz Gohara, and Mike Soroka are each battling shoulder discomfort.The NL East might be the most competitive division in 2018, and I don鈥檛 see how the Braves have improved their standing, relative to their competition, over last season.Get The EdgeLIMITED TIME OFFER - 60% OFFUnlock this article to see 4 other MLB season win totals offering value, according to Sean Zerillo's model.TRY EDGE TODAYNow accepting&Already an EDGE member?聽Sign In